September 2024 brought some interesting shifts to Ottawa’s real estate scene. The market saw a solid 11.4% increase in home sales compared to the same month last year, with 1,047 properties sold through the MLS® System. While that sounds promising, it’s worth noting that this number is still 17.4% below the five-year average for September and 15.4% below the 10-year average. But the bigger picture tells a different story: year-to-date sales have reached 10,485 units, up 6.4% from 2023. Not bad for a market that’s in flux!

Adjusting to the Changing Market

With so much buzz around potential interest rate cuts, longer mortgage amortizations, and higher price caps for insured mortgages, both buyers and sellers are taking a fresh look at their options. Ottawa’s fall market is holding up well, with steady sales and prices. But it’s not just about demand—Ottawa’s supply problem continues to be the elephant in the room.

To give you an example, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recently pointed out that Ottawa’s construction levels (adjusted for population) are the lowest they’ve been in almost a decade. And the city’s own data backs that up, showing that only 22% of this year’s housing target had been met by the end of August. Translation? We’re not building enough homes—and certainly not the types of homes that hit the “missing middle,” like townhomes and mid-sized condos that appeal to a wide range of buyers.

Home Prices: A Snapshot

When it comes to pricing, the numbers have stayed fairly steady. The overall MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), which is a more accurate measure than average prices, showed a small bump, with the composite benchmark price sitting at $642,800—up 0.2% from last year.

Here’s how things break down:

• Single-family homes: The benchmark price hit $729,000, up 0.5% from September 2023. So, if you’re in the market for a standalone home, expect prices to be holding firm.
• Townhouses/row units: Prices for these homes dipped slightly, with a benchmark price of $500,000—down 1.7%. It’s a small drop, but worth noting if you’re shopping for one of these more affordable options.
• Apartments: The benchmark price for apartments also saw a slight decline, down 1.3% year-over-year to $414,200. While this dip could present opportunities for buyers looking to enter the market at a lower price point, it’s important to remember that the condo market can vary a lot by neighbourhood.

On the whole, the average sale price for homes in September 2024 rose 1.4% to $685,551. Keep in mind, though, that average prices can be a little misleading—they lump together everything from luxury homes to smaller, more affordable properties. As OREB often reminds us, prices can vary significantly from one neighbourhood to the next, so if you’re thinking of buying or selling, make sure you’re looking at the specific trends for your area.

Inventory and Listings: More Homes Hitting the Market

Here’s some good news if you’ve been hunting for a new home: new listings were up 3.9% in September 2024 compared to last year, with 2,343 homes hitting the market. That’s not just higher than last year’s numbers—it’s also above the five-year and ten-year averages for September. So, if you’ve been frustrated by a lack of options, the increased inventory could work in your favour.

As of the end of September, there were 3,529 active residential listings—up nearly 17% from last year. That’s a pretty healthy increase, giving buyers a bit more choice, though we’re still seeing tight supply in certain areas and price ranges. The number of months of inventory, which tells us how long it would take to sell the current listings at the current pace of sales, was sitting at 3.4—up slightly from 3.2 in 2023. So while the market is still competitive, there’s a bit more breathing room than last year.

Ottawa’s Market Outlook: Steady, But with Some Challenges

Overall, Ottawa’s real estate market is showing resilience in the face of changing conditions. While sales and prices remain steady, the city continues to struggle with a chronic supply issue. Buyers are navigating an evolving market, with some eyeing opportunities as interest rates and policies shift. Sellers, meanwhile, are benefiting from a market where demand is still strong, especially for homes that meet that elusive “missing middle.”

For both buyers and sellers, it’s a time to weigh options carefully and keep an eye on the evolving landscape. Whether you’re looking to buy your first home, move up the property ladder, or sell your current property, it’s clear that Ottawa’s market is still full of opportunities—just make sure you’re staying informed and ready to act when the right one comes along!